Logistics does not merely serve the economy; it also senses its changes. If fewer raw materials arrive at factories, the volume of export goods falls, or stockpiling becomes more cautious, the effect quickly shows up in the freight market. The newly published data therefore deserve attention: the performance of Hungarian international road transport has fallen again, while costs are rising, the strengthening forint is further weighing on the profitability of some business models, and investment has also declined at the national level. The picture, however, is more complex than simply "there is less freight".

International road traffic has fallen further in a market that has been weak for some time

According to data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), in the second quarter of 2026 the international road freight performance of carriers based in Hungary amounted to 5.108 billion tonne-kilometres, compared with 5.612 billion a year earlier. That is a decline of nearly 9 percent.

It is not only distance-weighted performance that fell. The volume of goods carried in international traffic eased from 9.002 million tonnes to 8.373 million tonnes, or by around 7 percent.

It would, however, be irresponsible to draw far-reaching conclusions from a single quarter. The longer time series is therefore more important.

In the second quarter of 2022, the performance of international road transport was still 6.150 billion tonne-kilometres. In the same period of 2023 it was 4.971 billion, in 2024 it was 5.692 billion, in 2025 it was 5.612 billion, and in 2026 it was 5.108 billion.

The current figure therefore does not show the sudden collapse of a market that had been growing without interruption. International road transport has been operating for years in a fluctuating environment that is significantly weaker than the 2022 level, and in this environment the second quarter of 2026 brought a further decline. Compared with the second quarter of 2022, performance is about 17 percent lower.

The aggregate road transport data show an interesting counterpoint at first glance. While the performance of road freight measured in tonne-kilometres fell, the volume of goods actually transported grew by nearly 5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, from 44.0 million tonnes to 46.1 million tonnes. Over the same period, road transport performance fell by nearly 5 percent, from 8.667 billion to 8.249 billion tonne-kilometres.

There is no contradiction between the two figures.

The volume of goods transported shows how many tonnes of goods were put on the road, while performance measured in tonne-kilometres also takes the distance of transport into account. Carrying one tonne of goods over 500 kilometres represents 500 tonne-kilometres of performance, whereas hauling the same goods over 50 kilometres represents only 50. Total performance can therefore fall even as more goods are transported, if shorter hauls take on a larger role.

The detailed data also reveal a significant difference between the domestic and international markets. While total road freight volume grew, the volume of goods carried in international traffic fell by around 7 percent, and international transport performance dropped by nearly 9 percent.

In other words, the growth in aggregate freight volume masks the weakening of international road transport.

This is particularly important for a carrier or freight forwarder working in export-import traffic: the market it experiences may be significantly weaker than what the total Hungarian road freight volume suggests on its own.

Source: KSH, road freight transport STADAT data (sza0050, sza0055).

Carriers' situation can worsen even as freight rates rise

At first glance it may seem odd that, while Hungarian international road performance is falling, European freight rates rose significantly in the second quarter of 2026.

According to the European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark, produced jointly by the International Road Transport Union (IRU), Upply and Transport Intelligence, the European contract freight rate index rose to 148 points. That represented a quarterly increase of 7.9 points and an annual increase of 15.2 points. The spot index rose to 146.8 points: up 14.6 points on the previous quarter and 13.9 points on a year earlier.

This, however, is not necessarily a sign of strengthening demand.

According to the IRU's analysis, the rise in contract and spot rates was driven mainly by costs rather than demand. In the EU, the average price of diesel was EUR 1.94 per litre in the second quarter of 2026, a quarterly increase of 12 percent and an annual increase of 27 percent. According to the long-term road transport cost index cited in the report, operating costs rose by nearly 10 percent over a year, while road trade volumes between the large European economies fell by 1.6 percent.

Higher freight rates therefore do not necessarily mean a stronger freight market.

In Hungary, this is compounded by additional cost pressure. Under the 2026 road toll rules, infrastructure charges rose by a general 4.3 percent from 1 January, and from 1 March the main-road infrastructure charges for goods carriers are, overall, 35 percent higher than the 2025 level. The infrastructure charge increase on motorways and expressways, by contrast, does not exceed 4.3 percent.

Source: IRU–Upply–Transport Intelligence, European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Q2 2026; NiT Hungary, 2026 infrastructure charges.

The strong forint places further pressure on international carriers

Alongside costs, another factor is materially affecting the results of Hungarian international carriers in 2026: the strengthening of the forint.

According to the Road Freight Price Index (KFX), produced by DigiLog Consulting and presented by NiT Hungary on 8 September 2026, the total cost of international road transport rose by 12.3 percent year on year in the second quarter. According to the report, carriers were able to pass only slightly more than a third of this on in freight rates.

The KFX also draws attention to another factor that is less visible but important for profitability. According to its calculation, the 11.6 percent strengthening of the forint on its own caused a 4.6 percent drop in profit in the international transport segment.

The reason lies in the currency structure of international transport. The revenue from international transport tasks is generated to a significant extent in euros, while a significant part of wages, taxes, administrative and other domestic operating costs arise in forints. If the forint strengthens, the same revenue earned in euros is worth fewer forints, while the costs incurred in forints do not fall as a result.

A simple example illustrates the mechanism well. Revenue of EUR 100,000 is worth HUF 38.5 million at an exchange rate of HUF 385 to the euro, but only HUF 36.5 million at a rate of HUF 365. The company invoiced the same amount in euros, yet in forint terms it realises HUF 2 million less revenue.

The impact, however, is not the same at every company. An international carrier or freight forwarder may also have costs incurred in foreign currency – for example fuel, foreign tolls, subcontractor charges, or sea and air freight rates – which can provide a natural hedge against part of the exchange rate movement. But the larger the gap between revenue realised in euros and costs paid in forints, the more sensitive the company is to a strengthening forint.

This makes the conscious management of currency exposure particularly important. Freight rates, costs and the exchange rate together determine the actual margin.

Source: NiT Hungary, KFX 2026 Q2, 8 September 2026.

Logistics investment shows large swings

The movement of goods primarily shows what is happening in the economy right now. Investment carries a different kind of information: it also signals how willing economic actors are to invest in new capacity, infrastructure, machinery and technology.

According to data published by the KSH at the end of August, in the second quarter of 2026 the volume of national economy investment fell by 9.1 percent year on year based on raw data. Compared with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, the decline was 4.3 percent.

According to the KSH, the largest contributions to the decline came from manufacturing and from transport and warehousing, while growing investment activity in real estate transactions curbed the fall.

The quarterly figure for transport and warehousing is particularly striking. The sector's investment volume index was 61.2 in the second quarter of 2026, meaning that investment volume was 38.8 percent below a year earlier.

It would, however, be misleading to interpret this on its own as a general collapse of logistics investment.

In the first quarter, the KSH measured an extremely strong change in the opposite direction: the investment volume index for transport and warehousing was 191.1, corresponding to year-on-year growth of 91.1 percent. The combined result of the two quarters therefore shows a much more restrained picture: in the first half of 2026 the sector's volume index was 99.8, meaning that transport and warehousing investment was, overall, only 0.2 percent below the first half of 2025.

The significant quarterly swings also suggest that the timing of larger logistics and infrastructure projects, as well as base effects, can strongly influence the data. The 38.8 percent decline in the second quarter is therefore a warning sign, but on its own it does not yet prove a lasting turn in investment.

The longer-term comparison, however, does justify caution. For 2025 as a whole, the investment volume index for transport and warehousing was 117.4, meaning that the sector's investment volume rose by 17.4 percent compared with the previous year. In the first half of 2026, this was no longer followed by further growth.

What will really matter is whether the weakening seen in the second quarter remains a temporary pause, or continues in the coming quarters.

Source: KSH, Investment, Q2 2026; KSH STADAT, investment volume indices.

Logistics does not only follow the economy – it can also signal its changes

The current data do not imply that the Hungarian logistics market has collapsed.

A more complex process is visible.

Total road freight volume grew, while performance measured in tonne-kilometres fell. Within this, both volume and performance declined in international road transport. European freight rates are rising, but the increase is driven mainly by costs rather than demand. For Hungarian international carriers, the strengthening forint was added to this, and in investment an extremely strong first quarter was followed by a very weak second quarter.

This is particularly important in an export-oriented economy.

Logistics does not, on its own, generate the majority of freight tasks. Behind a shipment there is typically a manufacturer's raw material procurement, a trader's stock replenishment, an exporter's order or an importer's sales expectation. This picture is also nuanced by Hungarian export performance in the first half and by the structure of Hungarian exports and domestic value added.

If these companies become more cautious, order less, work with smaller inventories or postpone their investments, the effect can quickly show up in the freight market.

This is why it is worth viewing logistics performance as one of the traffic-light systems of the real economy.

At the same time, when interpreting the data, caution is just as important as the signal itself. A single quarter's decline in investment does not mean an investment crisis, just as rising freight rates do not prove a recovery in the freight market. And an increase in transported tonnes does not necessarily mean a strengthening of international freight movement.

Examining the different indicators together is what shows what is actually happening.

The current data do not yet prove a general corporate crisis. They do, however, clearly warn that an important segment of international freight movement is weakening, while logistics providers also face cost-side and – depending on their business model – exchange-rate-side pressure.

One of the most important questions of the coming months will therefore not simply be whether freight rates continue to rise.

It will be whether there will be enough goods, investment and corporate demand for logistics companies to operate with sustainable revenue volumes and margins despite higher costs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the state of the Hungarian road freight market in 2026? In 2026, the Hungarian road freight market presents a dual picture: while total road freight volume grew, the performance of international road transport fell by nearly 9 percent, carriers' costs rose, and the strengthening forint placed further pressure on the profitability of international transport.

Why is transport performance falling if more goods are being transported? The volume of goods transported shows how many tonnes were put on the road, while performance measured in tonne-kilometres also takes distance into account. If shorter, typically domestic hauls take on a larger role, total performance can fall even as more tonnes are transported.

How did international road transport develop in the second quarter of 2026? According to KSH data, the international road freight performance of Hungarian carriers was 5.108 billion tonne-kilometres, down from 5.612 billion a year earlier – a decline of nearly 9 percent. The volume of goods carried in international traffic fell by around 7 percent, from 9.002 million tonnes to 8.373 million tonnes.

Why are freight rates rising if demand is weak? According to the IRU–Upply–Transport Intelligence analysis, the rise in European contract and spot freight rates in the second quarter of 2026 was driven mainly by costs, not demand. The average price of diesel in the EU was EUR 1.94 per litre (a 27 percent annual increase), operating costs rose by nearly 10 percent, while road trade volume fell.

How does the strong forint affect Hungarian international carriers? Revenue from international transport tasks is generated to a significant extent in euros, while a significant part of wages, taxes and other domestic costs arise in forints. If the forint strengthens, the same revenue earned in euros is worth fewer forints. According to the KFX, the 11.6 percent strengthening of the forint on its own caused a 4.6 percent drop in profit in the international transport segment.

How did logistics investment develop in 2026? Investment volume in transport and warehousing was 38.8 percent below a year earlier in the second quarter of 2026, but rose by 91.1 percent in the first quarter. The combined result of the two quarters shows that, in the first half of 2026, the sector's investment volume was only 0.2 percent below the first half of 2025.

Is the Hungarian logistics market in crisis? The current data do not prove a general logistics or corporate crisis. They do, however, warn that an important segment of international freight movement is weakening, while carriers also face cost-side and – depending on their business model – exchange-rate-side pressure.